Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Confidence Survey Results – September 2015

Tuesday September 1st 2015

Other surveys show businesses in New Zealand to be very down in the mouth – which is perhaps not surprising considering the decline in our previous rock star sector – dairy – and the worries being expressed about our previous rock star export destination – China. But unlike countries where things which are exported are usually made from many smaller things which have been imported, the fall in our currency is providing a clear net boost to many export sectors. Tourism particularly is being turbocharged, but operators are also happy about the lower currency and noting improving sales in manufacturing, education, wine, Kiwifruit, advertising, business consultancy, retailing and packaging. Growth in our economy is slowing and interest rates will be cut again. But balancing factors are already in play so a recession scenario remains of very low probability.

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Confidence Survey Results – August 2015

Thursday August 6th 2015

Our first Confidence Survey since April last year produced a huge 778 comments on specific industries. People clearly had something they wanted to say. In the dairy sector woe reigns and respondents struggled for adjectives to describe their pessimism – and almost all of the results came in before the most recent dairy auction results. However, outside of dairying and house building in Christchurch comments were quite positive with construction particularly strong in Auckland and non-dairy exporters rising outside forestry and happy at the falling exchange rate. The results support a view of slowing NZ growth, but not recession.

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