Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Wednesday March 2nd 2016

Our first quarterly BNZ Confidence Survey for 2016 has unsurprisingly shown that the dairying sector is extremely pessimistic and experiencing hard times while record optimism prevails in tourism where visitor numbers and spending are booming. The weakness in dairying is starting to spread out but construction around the country is very strong, regional housing markets are lifting, and in Auckland while real estate comments are highly mixed it is interesting to note some respondents observing more Chinese buyers recently.

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BNZ Confidence Survey Results – December 2015

Friday December 4th 2015

Our last BNZ Confidence Survey for 2015 has produced a highly mixed range of responses neither consistent with weak economic growth or extra strong growth. Sentiment overall is positive but varies from strong in construction, property development, horticulture, business consultancy, engineering and tourism to okay in accounting, manufacturing, ICT, printing and packaging, hospitality, and retail to weak in dairying, and sheepmeat.

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BNZ Confidence Survey Results – October 2015

Monday October 5th 2015

Our latest BNZ Confidence Survey has found that in most sectors respondents are seeing things as either steady or improving. Construction and engineering are strong, manufacturing doing well, farming is weak but dairy farmers are pulling back from the brink. The Auckland residential real estate market is cooling, but elsewhere things look firm.

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Confidence Survey Results – September 2015

Tuesday September 1st 2015

Other surveys show businesses in New Zealand to be very down in the mouth – which is perhaps not surprising considering the decline in our previous rock star sector – dairy – and the worries being expressed about our previous rock star export destination – China. But unlike countries where things which are exported are usually made from many smaller things which have been imported, the fall in our currency is providing a clear net boost to many export sectors. Tourism particularly is being turbocharged, but operators are also happy about the lower currency and noting improving sales in manufacturing, education, wine, Kiwifruit, advertising, business consultancy, retailing and packaging. Growth in our economy is slowing and interest rates will be cut again. But balancing factors are already in play so a recession scenario remains of very low probability.

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Confidence Survey Results – August 2015

Thursday August 6th 2015

Our first Confidence Survey since April last year produced a huge 778 comments on specific industries. People clearly had something they wanted to say. In the dairy sector woe reigns and respondents struggled for adjectives to describe their pessimism – and almost all of the results came in before the most recent dairy auction results. However, outside of dairying and house building in Christchurch comments were quite positive with construction particularly strong in Auckland and non-dairy exporters rising outside forestry and happy at the falling exchange rate. The results support a view of slowing NZ growth, but not recession.

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