The survey is sent out to each of the 28,000 subscribers to the BNZ Weekly Overview on the first Thursday of each month and results are published the following Monday. It is the most up to date gauge of changes in business sentiment in New Zealand and accurately picks changes which subsequently appear in other surveys released with lags of many weeks.
BNZ Confidence Survey Results
Monday April 29th 2013
Our monthly survey of Weekly Overview readers attracted 203 responses and found a strong net 45% feeling that the economy will be better in a year’s time. This is up from the late-March result of a net 25% positive and is suggestive of eventually some good employment and capital spending growth.
Drought pushes confidence to a six month low
Sunday March 31st 2013
Optimism about where the economy will be in a year’s time has dipped to a six month low of a net 25% positive from 41% in early-March. The lengthening drought has clearly dented sentiment in the farming and farm servicing sectors while also crimping retail spending. However there is buoyancy in other sectors such as forestry, residential real estate, construction and related industries, and wine. The results therefore show an economy which is taking a hit from the lengthening drought, but with enough strength in other areas that sentiment still sits well above the long term average of a net 4% pessimistic. This therefore is consistent with growth in the economy in the area of 3% in the coming year or two – though subject to the drought not continuing much into April.
Business Confidence Hits 19 Month high
Saturday March 9th 2013
Our second monthly BNZ Confidence Survey for 2013 has found that in spite of the spreading drought, export-suppressing high exchange rate, and worries about housing affordability, sentiment regarding where the economy is heading has improved to the highest level since July 2011.
Business Sentiment Strong
Monday February 11th 2013
Our monthly survey of the sentiment of Weekly Overview readers has found a net 32% feeling positive about the state of the NZ economy in a year’s time. This is largely unchanged from the early-December result of a net 37% optimistic but does reveal some widely disparate sentiment between sectors.
Business Confidence Strong
Monday December 10th 2012
Good afternoon everyone. Our final BNZ Confidence Survey for 2012 shows a high level of optimism with regard to the state of the economy come the end of next year. A net 37% of respondents are optimistic compared with a net 38% in our November survey and a low for the year of a net 5% pessimistic in June. In residential real estate there is some evidence of a few more listings appearing, some manufacturers report good conditions, but things are quite mixed in agriculture. The rebuilding of Christchurch is beginning to have an impact and there are strong expectations of a lot more construction activity. Best regards www.tonyalexander.co.nz
Business Confidence Up Strongly
Monday November 5th 2012
Our latest BNZ Confidence Survey has found a lift in confidence about the state of the NZ economy in a year’s time to a net 38% optimistic. This is up from a net 20% optimistic in the October survey and the highest result since July 2011. In residential real estate a property shortage remains the dominant theme, and many businesses in other sectors are increasingly confident that the Christchurch rebuild is imminent and that their activity levels will firm. The results make a strong case for no cut in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank and will contribute to continued strength in the NZ dollar over the next few years.
Business Confidence Up Again
Tuesday October 9th 2012
Our latest BNZ Confidence Survey has found a small lift in optimism about where the economy will be in a year’s time for the fourth month in a row. A net 20% of respondents expect the economy to be better 12 months from now compared with 17% in September and a low of a net 5% expecting deterioration in the early-June survey. The recent upward movement in sentiment cannot however be classified as an event out of the ordinary for the past few years and we do not interpret it as a signal that the economy is about to embark on an employment and investment-driven surge. Bu reasonable growth above 2% remains in prospect.
Business Sentiment Steady
Monday September 10th 2012
With little fresh news on the state of the NZ economy in the past month and news offshore muted by summer holidays it is not too surprising that sentiment recorded in our monthly confidence survey is largely where it was in early-August. A net 17% of 302 respondents expect the economy to be in better shape in a years time. This is little changed from a net 13% positive last month and even the 9% result for July. The most recent low-point for sentiment was June’s -5% which came about after fresh bad news on Greece appeared and sentiment plunged from a high net 34% optimistic in April.
Business Confidence Near Steady
Monday August 6th 2012
Our monthly survey of BNZ Weekly Overview readers has found a small rise in expectations for where the economy will be in a year’s time to a net 13% optimistic from 9% in July. The result is consistent with growth continuing in the economy though not accelerating as yet and in that the outcome is consistent also with the bulk of other indicators released recently.
Sentiment Improves Slightly
Tuesday July 10th 2012
Our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has revealed a small improvement in sentiment about where the economy will be in a year’s time with a net 9% of respondents positive compared with a net 5% pessimistic last month. In residential real estate the comments indicate the shortage of listings spreading out of Auckland though not always with upward pressure on prices. Retailing continues to look very tough as does tourism, and in many other sectors conditions are flat to generally slightly improving.
The results are suggestive of businesses being willing to undertake hiring and investment (not so much in new buildings), but do not support strong economic growth as such.