Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Sporadic 4 April 16 2015

Thursday April 16th 2015

A Capital Gains Tax on Housing?
Yesterday the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor expressed concern about high and rapidly rising house prices in Auckland and implied a call for a capital gains tax. Will his comments scare buyers away and calm the market, or encourage more buying? The latter. In this Sporadic issue I discuss why.

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Sporadic 3 – April 13 2015

Monday April 13th 2015

China Is Important To Our Economy
Here are some numbers reminding us all that China is important to our economy.

20% of our goods export receipts come from China+
28% of foreign students studying in NZ come from China+, bringing us about $800mn.
14% of foreign tourism spending comes from China+, bringing us over $1bn.
7%+ of non-student migrants to NZ come from China+

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Sporadic 2 – April 8 2015

Wednesday April 8th 2015

Kiwi Falls 13% Against The USD
The Kiwi dollar may have backed away from parity with the AUD yesterday but that interesting crossover point is still likely to be breached within the next few weeks – or days. In this second Sporadic issue we take a quick look at factors driving not so much the NZD upward – as we have shed 13% against the greenback this past year – but the Aussie dollar downward. Those factors won’t reverse for quite some time so a highish NZD/AUD exchange rate will likely be around for a couple of years.

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Sporadic 1 – April 7 2015

Tuesday April 7th 2015

For The Love of Writing
In this issue number 1 of our new publication Sporadic, running to three pages, I invite people to give thought to what it means if interest rates stay at low levels for an extended period of time. While one usually jumps immediately to thinking as a borrower, the more interesting effects may be on investor behaviour, especially once one factors in not just the Baby Boomer bulge of people perhaps “needing” to boost their returns, but a slowly building expectation of living longer and needing retirment income over a longer period.

It adds up to increased demand for voluntary medical precedures, holiday homes, investment properties, and new workplace skills. There is scope for people to develop businesses to profit from these trends.

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