Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

NZ Looking Better Than Australia

Friday August 2nd 2013

Australia’s growth prospects and sentiment levels have dimmed as slowing China growth reveals an ending of the mining boom. In NZ by contrast construction and dairying are booming with potentially millions more Chinese each year seeking out NZ food products.

Real estate market strong with worsening listings shortage

Friday July 12th 2013

Our 26th survey of licensed real estate agents around New Zealand shows that a strong seller’s market continues. A record net 24% of agents feel that buyers are more motivated to transact than sellers. Only 21 of the 377 respondents feel that prices are falling and a strong net 46% feel that prices are rising.

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NZD Recovering

Thursday July 11th 2013

The NZD has risen this week against the British Pound and Euro as central bank leaders in those regions try to assure markets that they will keep monetary policy loose for a long time.

US Jobs Growth Firm, Aussie Not So

Thursday July 11th 2013

US jobs data were strong last Friday night and expectations of tapering have grown. But across the ditch unemployment is rising and that is going to drive more Kiwis back here and discourage more to not head over there.

Housing Rising

Thursday July 11th 2013

Nothing much new this week though we shall release the results of our latest BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey in a few days.

Interest Rates Rising For Four Years?

Thursday July 11th 2013

Rates are trending upward with a lot more to come once the NZ tightening cycle starts next year. History shows us that the rate cycle kicked upward in 1994 and peaked in 1998, then again in 2004 with a peak in 2008. So does a 2014 start mean a peak in 2018?

Business Sentiment Good

Thursday July 11th 2013

On Tuesday NZIER released their June Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. This is a great collection of indicators sourced from the non-farming business sector which provides insight not just into sentiment but into capacity availability, cost pressures and pricing intentions, and employment and investment plans. The latest survey tells us that growth in our economy […]

US Tapering Will Affect Us All

Thursday July 11th 2013

US tapering of money printing will engender substantial volatility in financial markets over the coming year or so. Plus I examine the issue of whether people who are retired have lower spending intentions than other age groups. They seem to.

Consumer Optimism Strong

Sunday July 7th 2013

A net 29% of the 523 respondents in our monthly BNZ-Nine Rewards Consumer Trends Survey expect the economy to be better in a year’s time, a net 8% expect to spend more than usual in the coming month, a net 44% are planning an overseas holiday, but a net 49% plan cutting their debt levels. […]

NZD up versus AUD

Thursday July 4th 2013

The NZD has jumped to almost 86 Aussie cents while changing little on the crosses. This move largely reflects a fall in the AUD as expectations grow of yet another easing of monetary policy.

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