Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

May 12th 2011

Thursday May 12th 2011

Our monthly BNZ-REINZ Market Survey has revealed a further strong increase in interest in the real estate market from first home buyers, sustained interest from investors, plus more sales going Unconditional and people passing through Open Homes. However a small net percent of licensed real estate agents feel there remains some downside to prices (though […]

On the road – 1

Tuesday May 10th 2011

For the next few weeks I shall be overseas so here is the first of what will be a small number of papers containing thoughts on what I see.

May 9th 2011

Monday May 9th 2011

Our May survey has found a sharp jump in optimism about the economy to the highest level in 18 months. However while some sectors are outright positive, such as agriculture, forestry, manufacturing exports and recruitment, and some have become less negative this month, such as construction, real estate and accounting, others remain negative – retailing […]

Why the economy has underperformed over the past year

Monday May 9th 2011

Two Years Back, Two Years Forward Our economy came out of recession in the June quarter of 2009 and for a while grew at an annualised pace of almost 2.5%. Things looked good enough that in mid-2010 the Reserve Bank raised its cash rate from the emergency setting of 2.5% and most of us spoke […]

May 6th Update

Friday May 6th 2011

The most recently updated version of this paper.

What Stops Ex-Pats Returning?

Tuesday May 3rd 2011

We look at the results of a Global Career Link survey of ex-pat Kiwis in the UK to see what would attract them back here and what stops them moving – though 91% would consider shifting back to NZ.

What we lack – 7

Monday May 2nd 2011

This seventh paper looks at the OECD Going For Growth and Policy Brief papers, the second 2025 Taskforce Report,  the Ministry of Economic Development’s Economic Development Indicators 2011 report, and an NZ Trade and Enterprise study on how Kiwi businesspeople are viewed offshore

Australia’s economy is growing strongly and that affects us in many ways.

Monday May 2nd 2011

Strong Aussie Economy Affects Us Here Developments in the Australian economy are quite relevant to us here and there are some big things happening across the ditch which businesses need to be aware off. The first is that in terms of economic growth and employment the Australian economy is in a very healthy state.

Are Households Saving Yet?

Sunday May 1st 2011

We have in hand wage income data for the March quarter and that allows us to make an estimate for the household savings rate in the year to March 2011. We calculate that it is still negative at -1% but that we are the closest to having a positive household savings rate since 2000.

What we lack – 6

Thursday April 28th 2011

This sixth paper looks at the series of papers produced by NZ Treasury in 2008 examining the key drivers of productivity growth.

Download document pdf 223kb

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