Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Business Sentiment Strong

Thursday July 7th 2011

This week we look at the latest business survey and note it implies accelerating growth and that means eventually rising interest rates.

Labour Market To Improve

Thursday June 30th 2011

We have little fresh information in hand regarding the state of and prospects for the NZ labour market. Our expectation remains for accelerating jobs growth with potentially rapid tightening up of labour availability bringing problems for unprepared businesses come the latter part of 2012.

When To Fix?

Thursday June 30th 2011

This week we look at the decision of whether to fix or float one’s mortgage – and when?

What Businesses Want

Tuesday June 21st 2011

Here is our analysis of the responses to our extra question in this month’s BNZ Confidence Survey regarding the one thing people would like to see the government do. Welfare reform and cutting spending come out well on top, but there is also strong support for training assistance, leaving KiwiSaver alone, tax reform, and stopping […]

On The Road 5

Monday June 20th 2011

Here are some comments following thre days spent in Shanghai. On The Road 5

Are Farmers Spending Yet?

Monday June 20th 2011

A traditional source of stimulus for the NZ economy is spending by farmers as their incomes rise on a commodity price boom. Based on discussions with farmers at National Farm Fieldays can we yet conclude that this spending boom is underway? Farmers Spending on Catch-Up Capex.  Last week for many of us was all about […]

Housing Market Stirring

Tuesday June 14th 2011

New Zealand’s housing market has been in generally weak state since the middle of 2007 but we believe that partly driven by an improving labour market, awareness of shortages, plus low interest rates a cyclical upturn has started. Housing Quietly Stirring To Life New Zealand’s housing market is showing good signs of recovery in some […]

June 10th 2011

Friday June 10th 2011

These are the results from our third BNZ-REINZ Market Survey. They show activity slowly improving on average around the country though with no evidence of upward price movement – except in most parts of Auckland where indicators are particularly strong.

June 6th 2011

Monday June 6th 2011

This month’s survey has revealed a further lift in sentiment about the economy in a year’s time to a net 57% optimistic from 42% in May. This is a record level. However comments about the current situation are still very mixed though with some clear strength in agriculture plus improvements in non-residential property and accountancy.

Business sentiment is soaring. Will this be third time lucky for our recovery from the 2008 recession?

Monday June 6th 2011

Third Time Lucky? The New Zealand economy still remains in relatively weak state in spite of booming export receipts. We know that farmers are enjoying bountiful times and the rises in their export prices have contributed to a strong 8.3% seasonally adjusted rise in export receipts over the past three months.

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