Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Housing Market Slowly Improving

Tuesday December 13th 2011

New Zealand’s housing market has picked up over the second half of this year – something we were forecasting a year ago. But some of the commentary appearing suggesting that the rise is unsustainable and that it is being fuelled by accelerating lending growth and speculative pressures is 100% off the mark.

First Home Buyers Active

Wednesday December 7th 2011

Our latest survey of the REINZ’s over 10,000 licensed real estate agents has shown growing interest in buying a property from first home buyers, static interest from investors, highly motivated vendors – but little willingness on their part to cut their asking price.

Data for BNZ Confidence Survey

Tuesday December 6th 2011

This attached file contains data through to December.

Download document vnd.-excel 34kb

Business Sentiment Holds Steady

Tuesday December 6th 2011

Our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has revealed little change in sentiment from a month ago with a net 3.2% of the 439 respondents expecting the economy to improve over the coming year compared with a net 2.2% expecting a deterioration one month ago and 6.% expecting an improvement two months ago. Sentiment has been steady […]

Caution Required Still

Tuesday November 29th 2011

Over the past few weeks in New Zealand we have received some data which has been better than expected – but we retain doubts that the economy is actually in as healthy a state as the numbers suggest. Firstly we have the retail spending data. During the September quarter retail spending volumes grew by a […]

World Worries Not Lessening

Tuesday November 22nd 2011

Five governments in Europe have now been thrown out over their handling of the debt crisis and although hopes are high that the newly elected leaders in Spain and the appointed unelected leaders in Greece and Italy will be able to regain the confidence of investors, the chances are they will not. In fact already […]

Handling Disasters

Tuesday November 15th 2011

This week I hae given a talk to the NZ Defence Association on the topic of the role of the Defence Forces in handling natural disasters – something not exactly in my field of expertise but well worth tackling. Analysing the issue what one can do is broadly break a natural disaster down into three […]

First Home Buyers Active

Wednesday November 9th 2011

Our eighth survey of over 10,000 licensed real estate agents throughout New Zealand has found that overall the residential real estate market is moving up, but with the past month revealing a rise in the number of vendors wanting to make a sale. That is, things have moved from broadly neutral to being more of […]

Offshore Woes Continuing

Tuesday November 8th 2011

This week for a few days I am in Osaka to attend and deliver a presentation at the Japan New Zealand Business Council annual meeting. Then later I will be heading to Beijing for a different presentation to the Asia-Pacific Forestry Week conference held at the National Convention Centre near the birds nest swimming stadium […]

Sentiment Dips A Tad Further

Monday November 7th 2011

Our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has revealed a fall in sentiment for the second month in a row. A net 2% of respondents now expect the economy to be worse in a year’s time, down from a net 7% optimistic last month and 36% optimistic two months ago. The result is still above average however […]

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