Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Business Confidence Up Again

Tuesday October 9th 2012

Our latest BNZ Confidence Survey has found a small lift in optimism about where the economy will be in a year’s time for the fourth month in a row. A net 20% of respondents expect the economy to be better 12 months from now compared with 17% in September and a low of a net […]

Sources of Western Apprehension About China

Saturday September 22nd 2012

Anxiety about Chinese investment in New Zealand seems out of proportion to any expressed concerns about purchases from other countries. Why are Kiwis and Westerners in general apprehensive about China? This document will be expanded on a frequent yet ad hoc basis with points of concern in the West.

Sources of Western Apprehension About China

Saturday September 22nd 2012

Anxiety about Chinese investment in New Zealand seems out of proportion to any expressed concerns about purchases from other countries. Why are Kiwis and Westerners in general apprehensive about China? This document will be expanded on a frequent yet ad hoc basis with points of concern in the West.

Low interest rates for much longer

Tuesday September 18th 2012

The Reserve Bank undertook its regular six weekly review of the official cash rate last week and surprised no-one when they decided to leave it unchanged at the record low of 2.5%. It was also not too surprising that they pushed out the timing for when they think they will be raising it to the […]

NZ Residential Real Estate Market Firm

Thursday September 13th 2012

Our September BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey has found results very similar to August with buyers more motivated to transact than sellers on average (a sellers market), prices strongly perceived to be rising, but not all parts of the country displaying such price strength. In particular price weakness is seen by agents in Northland, Taranaki, and […]

Why The NZD Is High

Tuesday September 11th 2012

The Kiwi dollar has risen to near US 81 cents in the past few days in spite of some weaker than expected data on the state of our manufacturing and building sectors which suggest our economy might have shrunk slightly during the June quarter. If the soon to be released National Accounts do show we […]

Business Sentiment Steady

Monday September 10th 2012

With little fresh news on the state of the NZ economy in the past month and news offshore muted by summer holidays it is not too surprising that sentiment recorded in our monthly confidence survey is largely where it was in early-August. A net 17% of 302 respondents expect the economy to be in better […]

Sept. 5 Handout 2

Wednesday September 5th 2012

This is the second handout given at the China Symposium 2012 – this one entitled Beyond Milk and Trees.

Sept. 5 Handout 1

Wednesday September 5th 2012

Here is a copy of one of the two handouts prepared for the China Symposium 2012 – this one entitled “Kiwi Experiences In China”.

Download document pdf 117kb

Interest rates steady

Monday September 3rd 2012

Every six weeks the Reserve Bank reviews its official cash rate and decides to either raise it, lower it, or more often than not leave it unchanged. The prime driver behind their decision is whether they feel the outlook for inflation has changed. If it hasn’t then they’ll probably do nothing – or else they […]

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