Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

An Unbalanced Upturn

Thursday February 28th 2013

New Zealand has embarked upon what will likely be one of the most unbalanced periods of economic growth we have ever seen. It probably won’t end well a few years down the track, but until then most householders won’t notice that things are astray, outside availability of affordable accommodation, because of happiness generated for most […]

Sources of Western Apprehension About China

Monday February 25th 2013

There is widespread acknowledgement of the amazing economic growth, development, and alleviation of poverty in China, but also concerns about what sort of role China will play as it takes its natural place at the global political, military, and economic tables.  This paper, entitled “Sources of Western Apprehension About China”,  contains 55 factors which lie […]

Good Housing Info Next Month

Thursday February 21st 2013

Many thanks to the near 600 real estate agents who a week and a half ago replied to our monthly BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey regarding conditions in the market. The results were released to this emailing list and showed a lift in most measures from where they were in early-December, A record net 35% of […]

RB Unlikely To Impose Minimum Deposit Rules

Thursday February 21st 2013

We have no fresh data on the NZ housing market this week. But here are some thoughts on whether the RB will try to control prices by forcing minimum deposit requirements upon banks.

The RB’s Problem With Interest Rates

Thursday February 21st 2013

There is increasing upward pressure appearing on wholesale interest rates in New Zealand and that is going to be the story we think for all of this year – though in a stop-start fashion. One has learnt to hedge one’s bets regarding the speed of interest rate rises given the appalling rate forecasting record we […]

Kiwi Business Culture

Saturday February 16th 2013

We all speak with an accent – though no-one realises it until they hear people from other countries or regions. In similar vein, as businesspeople we all have a culture. But we don’t always know we do until we encounter businesspeople elsewhere, and realise that we might need to make adjustments to operate outside the […]

More Than Milk and Scenery

Saturday February 16th 2013

It is rare when one travels overseas to encounter news on New Zealand beyond an All Blacks game, natural disaster, as a tourist destination ($9bn, 15.4% all exports), and as a player in China’s milk market. But a lot more is happening than these things and in this section we shall explore over time the […]

NZ Expat and Global Ranking Surveys

Saturday February 16th 2013

The world is awash with surveys and each month in this section we will examine any recently undertaken of expats, plus run through the many surveys which show how NZ ranks with regards to low corruption, starting a business etc. Pity about incomes, cost of living, housing affordability, job satisfaction, globalisation, & low innovation.

NZ Interest and Exchange Rates

Saturday February 16th 2013

Nature of the NZD Beast There are two key things people need to know about the Kiwi dollar. First, the NZ dollar is a high beta currency. What that means is that its movements tend to exceed those of the “market” overall. In this context what we mean is that when the world’s investors get […]

NZ Migrant Flows

Saturday February 16th 2013

No Rush of Kiwis Full document with graphs is here. http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Brain-Gain-Feb-20131.pdf New Zealand has the most churning population in the OECD. On average each year we lose 1.7% of our population offshore and gain 2.1% – thus delivering a net migration gain for the past ten years of 13,000 people per annum and a total […]

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