Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Housing Cycles

Wednesday December 4th 2013

In this paper we take a look at various measures which might give some insight into regions due for a period of catch-up house price rises.

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Confidence At record High

Monday December 2nd 2013

Confidence about where the NZ economy will be in a year’s time has hit a record net 69% positive, up from 66% last month. Construction and its many associated industries is strong, accountants are more positive than for many years, and things are less negative in a number of sectors such as retailing. The LVR […]

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Special question on LVR impact

Thursday November 14th 2013

This month we asked a special question. “What effects have you noticed from the LVR rules?” All the responses are in the attached document.

First Home Buyers Disappear

Thursday November 14th 2013

The introduction of credit controls on lending to people with deposits below 20% of a house’s value has resulted in a net 78% of the 250 licensed real estate agents replying to this month’s survey saying that they are seeing fewer first home buyers than in the previous month. The result a  month ago was […]

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Confidence hits record high

Monday November 11th 2013

Confidence amongst BNZ Weekly Overview readers regarding where the NZ economy will be in a year’s time has surged to a record high. A net 65.7% of the 469 respondents are optimistic compared with a net 45% in October and 57% in September. Sentiment has been broadly trending upward since the middle of last year […]

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Consumer Spending Plans Firming

Friday November 1st 2013

Our monthly survey of NZ consumers has found a strong jump in the net proportion planning to raise their spending in the coming month to a net 19% from 8% in October. This bodes well for retailers heading into the peak Christmas shopping period. There is also a slow but upward movement in the proportion […]

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First Home Buyers Flee

Monday October 14th 2013

The 420 licensed real estate agents who responded in this month’s survey have revealed a sharp decline in first-home buyer presence, much smaller decline in investor demand, and barely noticeable impact on perceptions of where prices are heading.

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Consumer Spending Intentions Steady

Monday October 7th 2013

There are two results of interest from this month’s survey. The first is that there is as yet no clear improving trend in the spending intentions of NZ consumers. Retailers may feel justified in getting ready for some stronger spending on the basis of other economic fundamentals such as rising construction, dairying, and house prices. […]

Confidence Survey Results

Monday September 30th 2013

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Buyers still face a struggle

Monday September 16th 2013

Our monthly survey of licensed real estate agents around New Zealand attracted a strong 418 responses this month but contained no good news for buyers. In fact a record proportion of agents see the current market as a seller’s one and investors are increasingly becoming the driving force. But first a red herring for buyers….

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