Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Cyprus events reflect poorly on Europe’s leaders

Wednesday March 27th 2013

The main piece of news about growth and financial markets offshore this week surrounded the €10bn bailout of Cyprus by the ECB and European Commission. Because Cyprus only accounts for some 0.2% of Euro-Zone GDP, because German voters and those in some other well managed northern European countries are tired of bailing out the economic failures down […]

Interest rate outlook still benign

Wednesday March 27th 2013

A quick glance at the rates table below will show that compared with a week ago nothing much has changed with regard to NZ wholesale interest rates. That is because we have not received any fresh unexpected data, any unexpected comments from the Reserve Bank, or anything particularly startling with regard to probable interest rate […]

Housing shortage was foreseen – and it will worsen

Wednesday March 27th 2013

People often ask how our low income relative to countries overseas manifests itself. We usually answer along the lines of inability to afford a proper public transport system in Auckland, poor roads throughout New Zealand, insufficient money in the health system (including for keeping our NZ-trained health professionals), loss of many young people offshore, and […]

Export growth won’t be sustained

Wednesday March 27th 2013

With regard to data received on the state of the NZ economy this week we have the good news from Fonterra of an upward revision to their forecast payout this season, and the bad news that the drought is continuing and risking hitting next season’s production. We have learnt that courtesy of some shifting of […]

Handout for Massey University Symposium

Tuesday March 26th 2013

This is the handout I made available covering what I spoke about at a housing affordability symposium of the Albany Campus for Massey University today.

Upcoming NZ-China Events

Monday March 25th 2013

This is a calendar of events coming up which we know about.

NZD Supported by strong GDP

Thursday March 21st 2013

The very strong GDP numbers have pushed the NZD toward USD 82.5 cents and up against a Euro hit by worries about Cyprus and the banking sector in Europe once again. But all exchange rates remain within their recent ranges.

Stellar GDP but rates outlook still benign

Thursday March 21st 2013

Drought pushes out further in time any tightening of monetary policy, but the strong December quarter GDP numbers challenge that a tad. Add it all up and factor in uncertainty and we are still left with the Reserve Bank not raising the official cash rate until sometime next year.

The role of foreign buying again

Thursday March 21st 2013

Following on from last week’s release of data showing NZ sales of dwellings to people offshore we examine a similar study from the United States which shows similar results.

Drought and why I gave away $10

Thursday March 21st 2013

I cover three things in my lead article this week – why recession from the drought is a low probability scenario, why I gave $10 but not $50 to a stranger on the Marina Bay Promenade in Singapore, and why Singapore’s financial sector is strong and set to get a lot bigger.

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