Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Kiwi Locus of Control At A Distance

Monday April 8th 2013

Where does the locus of control sit for the average New Zealand business? Do the people we look toward to create jobs and profits and to build and expand our economy believe that they are the masters of their own destiny? Or are they waiting for external circumstances to change,? In an attempt to answer this […]

The NZD Trend Is Upward

Thursday April 4th 2013

Short of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula, attacks between Israel and Iran, foot and mouth breaking out in NZ, the Euro breaking up (though hard to figure that impact) or the Chinese and Japanese going at each other over their disputed islands, the NZD is going to go up. This week the NZD […]

Europe Looks Worse and Worse – Again

Thursday April 4th 2013

In Spain the situation remains poor with the economy now expected by the Bank of Spain to contract by 1.5% this year rather than the near 0.5% predicted by the Spanish government late last year. The budget deficit is declining but at a projected 6% of GDP from 6.7% last year is still going to […]

The Reserve Bank Won’t Rush To Raise interest Rates

Thursday April 4th 2013

I’m in Sydney at the moment so let’s start this week’s interest rates discussion by looking at the situation here. In Australia increasing talk of interest rates bottoming out has led to a rise in fixed rate borrowing. Up to a quarter of new mortgages are now having their rates locked in rather than floating. […]

Listings Shortage Worsens

Thursday April 4th 2013

The supply of new dwellings continues to rise and in February in seasonally adjusted terms the number of consents issued for the construction of new dwellings rose by 1.9%. This is a relatively small increase following a 0.2% fall in January. However in the three months to February consents rose 5.7% seasonally adjusted which is […]

Credit Growth Picking Up Only Slowly

Thursday April 4th 2013

The annual rate of growth in household debt rose above 4% in February (4.1%) for the first time since December 2008 when it was on its way sharply lower from 12% a year earlier. The annual pace has lifted from just 1.1% a year ago so does this mean there is another household borrowing binge […]

Drought hits sentiment, labour shortages loom

Thursday April 4th 2013

Many thanks to those people who responded to our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey. The results show that confidence about where the NZ economy will be in a year’s time has fallen to a six month low courtesy largely of the drought it appears. But that same drought has also boosted sentiment for grain and seed […]

A Quick Summary of the Economy

Thursday April 4th 2013

I gave a talk in Sydney this week and this is the very simple handout I made available for attendees.

Drought pushes confidence to a six month low

Sunday March 31st 2013

Optimism about where the economy will be in a year’s time has dipped to a six month low of a net 25% positive from 41% in early-March. The lengthening drought has clearly dented sentiment in the farming and farm servicing sectors while also crimping retail spending. However there is buoyancy in other sectors such as […]

NZD rises and more will follow this year

Wednesday March 27th 2013

As noted above the Euro has weakened this week in response to worries about capital flight following the appalling handling of the request from Cyprus for help from the troika of the IMF, European Commission and European Central bank. With investors now feeling (despite vociferous denials) that contributions from bank depositors may be required for […]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38