Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

I’ve been writing a weekly column for NZ regional newspapers since 1998. Columns produced since the start of 2011 are included on this page.

Warnings won’t push house prices lower

Thursday April 18th 2013

Last Thursday during a speech in Wellington the Finance Minister Bill English warned that the current rate of increase in house prices would push interest rates and the NZD higher, that the housing bubble is likely to burst, and that when this “…inevitably, eventually…” happens households would be hit.

Weak offshore data pushes rates slightly lower

Thursday April 18th 2013

The main theme in the financial markets this week has been weak economic data coming out of the United States and China and nothing of major importance here in New Zealand. That includes the March quarter Consumers Price Index released yesterday which showed average consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the three months to lie […]

Money printing – the revised 2000s boom and bust cycle

Thursday April 18th 2013

Often when we see the prices of things we own rising we feel quite chuffed about having made a canny purchase earlier on and think maybe we should have bought more of the thing and perhaps the time is not too late to do so. Therefore rising markets can generate their own upward momentum. In […]

Strong Investor Property demand

Friday April 12th 2013

All our measures of residential real estate market strength eased off slightly this month but practically the same thing happened last year so we do not take this as an early sign that the market is cooling off. The anecdotes in fact suggest the exact opposite and trends for all our measures remain upward except […]

Download document pdf 382kb

NZD Rises – More To Come

Thursday April 11th 2013

It comes with no degree of satisfaction or happiness to say that NZ exporters are going to be severely pressured through the entirety of this economic cycle stretching many years by a high and still rising NZ dollar. The world’s investors consider us and Australia as safe havens. We have an export mix the emerging […]

Mediocre US Jobs Growth A Reminder of Problems

Thursday April 11th 2013

In the United States the week’s worth of data got off to a fairly lacklustre start with employment rising only 88,000 in March rather than the near 2000,000 which forecasters had been expecting. This mediocre rise following a strong gain of 268,000 in February is the weakest monthly rise since June, but consistent with many […]

Interest Rates Staying Low

Thursday April 11th 2013

Bond yields have fallen around the world over the past week driven lower by weak jobs data in the United States and Bank of Japan extraordinary policy easing. In the United States the March jobs report was much weaker than expected with employment ahead only 88,000 rather than the near 200,000 expected and February’s rise […]

The Listings Shortage Worsens

Thursday April 11th 2013

The monthly NZ property report tells us that at the end of March nationwide there were 41,775 properties listed for sales. This represents some 27 weeks’ worth of sales based on activity to the end of February compared with a measure of 32.4 weeks a year ago and 46.7 weeks two years ago. This report […]

Firm sentiment driving a tightening labour market

Thursday April 11th 2013

The latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion from NZIER has recorded a good seasonally adjusted rise in non-farm business sentiment to a net 32% optimistic from 19% in the December quarter and an average since mid-2009 of just 13%. Responding to their good sentiment a net 3% of businesses plan boosting investment in buildings versus […]

Just What NZ Needs

Thursday April 11th 2013

In a week and a half’s time I shall once again be in Europe to attend some conferences, meet various people who will let me bother them, visit Cyprus to witness the horror of a banking system collapse on the ground, and undertake some presentations to largely Kiwi expat audiences in London – though not […]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38