Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview 8 September 2016

Thursday September 8th 2016

This week we note that adopting a pessimistic attitude following the GFC has left many people far worse off than if they had simply admitted the uncertainty and tossed a coin to decide what to do. The NZD has risen close to US 75 cents as more people acknowledge the good state of the NZ economy which we expect official data to confirm for the June quarter next week.

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Weekly Overview Single Column 8 September 2016

Thursday September 8th 2016

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Weekly Overview 1 September 2016

Thursday September 1st 2016

This week’s Overview is a short one where I note the good levels of business sentiment, the people I encountered in an auction room last week, and how growth in Auckland house supply is less than elsewhere in spite of the large shortage.

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Weekly Overview single column 1 September 2016

Thursday September 1st 2016

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Weekly Overview 25 August 2016

Thursday August 25th 2016

The Kiwi dollar is sitting above US 73 cents this afternoon so we remind people that the fundamentals argue in favour of a firm NZD. Note that the ten year average NZD/USD exchange rate is 74.3 cents.

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Weekly Overview 25 August 2016 Single Column

Thursday August 25th 2016

Single column edition of the WO.

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Weekly Overview 18 August 2016

Thursday August 18th 2016

This week we note that if booming retail spending and employment growth are not causing the rate of inflation to rise then trying to encourage people to borrow more and spend more via lower interest rates probably won’t help the RB reach its goal of inflation back near 2%. Yet two more interest rate cuts remain likely in November and February.

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Weekly Overview 18 August 2016 Single Column

Thursday August 18th 2016

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Weekly Overview 11 August 2016

Thursday August 11th 2016

This morning the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate as expected from 2.25% to just 2.0%. But because they signalled only one further rate cut whereas the markets were positioned for two the NZ dollar has rallied to near US 73 cents – in spite of the RB again saying it would be good if it fell.

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Weekly Overview 11 August 2016 Single Column

Thursday August 11th 2016

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