The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.
Weekly Overview 9 February 2017
Thursday February 9th 2017
In this week’s Overview we take a look at the main factors which determine the level of activity in the residential real estate market. This will be highly relevant to folk like real estate agents, mortgage brokers, bankers, conveyancing lawyers and moving companies.
The mainstream media focus is overwhelmingly on those immediately affected by the executive orders being signed by the new US President. Focussing on highly emotive issues risks blinding people to the likely economic impact of policies so far beginning to be addressed and those yet to come. Stripping away the emotions revealed by those opposing President Trump and hidden by the 63 million Americans who voted for him, this week we take a look at how his policies are likely to affect the US economy and our own over time.
Welcome to the first Weekly Overview for 2017. Like everyone else is doing currently we take a look at what is happening in the United States and postulate the relevance for ourselves. We also look at factors underpinning the Kiwi dollar which has risen four cents since the start of the year.
The Overview is short at just three pages this week as we head into the Christmas break. We mention the good fiscal numbers announced by NZ Treasury this afternoon then note the easing in the Auckland housing market revealed by monthly Barfoot and Thompson data. Nothing much new really with no obvious implications of the change in Prime Minister..
This week, apart from doing what everyone else is doing at the moment – guessing at what the US election outcome means – we give some reminders on our housing view and take a look at banking sector dependency in NZ on the savings of foreigners (page 4).
This week we take a look at whether the conditions might exist in New Zealand to produce something which people might consider our own Brexit or Trumpit Plus we take a quick look at the latest real estate numbers. Nothing too major really.
This week we do what everyone else on the planet is doing and make some comments about the win for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election. Our conclusion is that the economic impact on ourselves will be minimal and it is notable that initial selloffs in financial markets have been more than reversed.
This week has brought lots of positive news for our economy in the form of strong 1.4% jobs growth during the September quarter, strong business sentiment plus investment and employment intentions, and a sharp jump in dairy prices. These factors help underpin our ongoing view that growth prospects are good for the NZ economy and one can’t help but think these developments will help keep net immigration inflows at high levels for a number of years to come.