Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview – Feb. 5

Wednesday February 5th 2014

Interest rates are headed up this week and borrowers should be careful in their assumptions about the peak in rates and how long rates stay high. What I have picked up from two days visiting Christchurch this week (on top of not a single soul believing the CBD will get anywhere for many years) is widespread expectations that the residential rebuild period will take a lot lot longer than commonly thought. The RB last week said they assume a peak of 2016 – 17. One person in Christchurch suggested 5 – 8 years as the reconstruction duration given the delays because of huge compliance issues, staff shortages, and product delays.