This week we have learnt about a surge in exports in February – but it won’t last. Advertising for jobs appears to be trending upward, and offshore the events in Cyprus are one reason why the NZ dollar will remain strong and go higher.
This week I look at the drought and how it probably won’t create a recession, how it was worth giving $10 to a bloke in Singapore but not $50, some positive financial sector growth signs for Singapore, and I reference a US survey producing similar foreign house sales data as for my survey of last week.
For the next week I’ll be in Singapore but will be running the usual monthly BNZ Confidence Survey and BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey. The latter will include questions on offshore presence in the housing market and will give data rather than merely anecdotes to assist the debate on the extent to which foreign buyers are affecting the Auckland market in particular.
New Zealand’s domestic economy is picking up, lead by construction. But export receipts are falling and with the NZD set to stay high and go higher, a current account deficit blowout looms – then probably a credit rating cut to follow the 2011 reduction, in maybe 3 – 4 years time. Also, in the Housing section we note migration flows are now officially positive and therefore adding to pressures – even after the 27% rise in Auckland house prices since 2009.
In this week’s Overview I look at how soon we will have good information on the relative importance of offshore buyers, first home buyers, and investors in the NZ housing market. Last week’s retail numbers were strong and that is one source of strength in the NZ dollar though some comments from the RBNZ Governor have for now capped the NZD. But before year’s end we see the NZD exceeding US 90 cents, 55 pence, and maybe 85 Aussie cents.
This week we look at recent data and where the economy is likely to go and why. In the housing section we also look at the latest data and analyse a personal decision regarding whether or not to buy a holiday home (not).
Visiting Singapore in March – & Some Holiday Comments
Thursday January 31st 2013
I have screeds of leave to use up which was accrued during the global financial crisis. That means that I’ll not be doing as many talks around the country for the next 3 – 4 years as in the past as I will be hopping overseas more. In that vein I shall be in Singapore and available to chat to anyone interested in catching up with what is happening back in New Zealand between March 11 and 15. So if you’d like to catch-up or even gather some folk together for a talk email me. firstname.lastname@example.org