Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview April 11 Full pdf

Thursday April 11th 2013

The importance of EPIC to NZ’s economic future, interest rates go down while the NZD goes up – with potentially a lot more appreciation to come.

Download document pdf 246kb

Drought Hits Some, Benefits Others

Thursday April 4th 2013

The full pdf copy of the April 4 Weekly Overview is loaded here.

Minimal New Data

Wednesday March 27th 2013

This week we have learnt about a surge in exports in February – but it won’t last. Advertising for jobs appears to be trending upward, and offshore the events in Cyprus are one reason why the NZ dollar will remain strong and go higher.

Download document pdf 260kb

Weekly Overview – March 21 Full Issue

Thursday March 21st 2013

This week I look at the drought and how it probably won’t create a recession, how it was worth giving $10 to a bloke in Singapore but not $50, some positive financial sector growth signs for Singapore, and I reference a US survey producing similar foreign house sales data as for my survey of last week.

Drought – Plus my time in Singapore

Thursday March 14th 2013

I’ve shouted myself ten days in Singapore to learn more about Asia. Here are my observations – mainly serious, some not so. Great bird park here.

 

Download document pdf 247kb

Off To Singapore – Thoughts on Housing

Thursday March 7th 2013

For the next week I’ll be in Singapore but will be running the usual monthly BNZ Confidence Survey and BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey. The latter will include questions on offshore presence in the housing market and will give data rather than merely anecdotes to assist the debate on the extent to which foreign buyers are affecting the Auckland market in particular.

Download document pdf 241kb

An Unbalanced Period of Growth

Thursday February 28th 2013

New Zealand’s domestic economy is picking up, lead by construction. But export receipts are falling and with the NZD set to stay high and go higher, a current account deficit blowout looms – then probably a credit rating cut to follow the 2011 reduction, in maybe 3 – 4 years time. Also, in the Housing section we note migration flows are now officially positive and therefore adding to pressures – even after the 27% rise in Auckland house prices since 2009.

Download document pdf 184kb

Weekly Overview February 21

Thursday February 21st 2013

In this week’s Overview I look at how soon we will have good information on the relative importance of offshore buyers, first home buyers, and investors in the NZ housing market. Last week’s retail numbers were strong and that is one source of strength in the NZ dollar though some comments from the RBNZ Governor have for now capped the NZD. But before year’s end we see the NZD exceeding US 90 cents, 55 pence, and maybe 85 Aussie cents.

Download document pdf 158kb

Weekly Overview February 7

Thursday February 7th 2013

This week we look at recent data and where the economy is likely to go and why. In the housing section we also look at the latest data and analyse a personal decision regarding whether or not to buy a holiday home (not).

Download document pdf 130kb

Visiting Singapore in March – & Some Holiday Comments

Thursday January 31st 2013

I have screeds of leave to use up which was accrued during the global financial crisis. That means that I’ll not be doing as many talks around the country for the next 3 – 4 years as in the past as I will be hopping overseas more. In that vein I shall be in Singapore and available to chat to anyone interested in catching up with what is happening back in New Zealand between March 11 and 15. So if you’d like to catch-up or even gather some folk together for a talk email me.  tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz

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