Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview May 2 full pdf

Thursday May 2nd 2013

Full issue here.

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Weekly Overview April 25 – Full pdf

Thursday April 25th 2013

The full pdf of this week’s issue is here.

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World outlook worsens – so more money to be printed

Thursday April 18th 2013

Central banks are printing money explicitly to boost asset prices. This week’s worse than expected economic data offshore mean they will be more determined to keep the printing presses in operation. That implies more money seeking a home in the likes of the NZD and businesses need to give thought in their strategic planning to handling this liquidity-driven world. I offer some thoughts.  1,246 words

 

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Weekly Overview April 11 Full pdf

Thursday April 11th 2013

The importance of EPIC to NZ’s economic future, interest rates go down while the NZD goes up – with potentially a lot more appreciation to come.

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Drought Hits Some, Benefits Others

Thursday April 4th 2013

The full pdf copy of the April 4 Weekly Overview is loaded here.

Minimal New Data

Wednesday March 27th 2013

This week we have learnt about a surge in exports in February – but it won’t last. Advertising for jobs appears to be trending upward, and offshore the events in Cyprus are one reason why the NZ dollar will remain strong and go higher.

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Weekly Overview – March 21 Full Issue

Thursday March 21st 2013

This week I look at the drought and how it probably won’t create a recession, how it was worth giving $10 to a bloke in Singapore but not $50, some positive financial sector growth signs for Singapore, and I reference a US survey producing similar foreign house sales data as for my survey of last week.

Drought – Plus my time in Singapore

Thursday March 14th 2013

I’ve shouted myself ten days in Singapore to learn more about Asia. Here are my observations – mainly serious, some not so. Great bird park here.

 

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Off To Singapore – Thoughts on Housing

Thursday March 7th 2013

For the next week I’ll be in Singapore but will be running the usual monthly BNZ Confidence Survey and BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey. The latter will include questions on offshore presence in the housing market and will give data rather than merely anecdotes to assist the debate on the extent to which foreign buyers are affecting the Auckland market in particular.

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An Unbalanced Period of Growth

Thursday February 28th 2013

New Zealand’s domestic economy is picking up, lead by construction. But export receipts are falling and with the NZD set to stay high and go higher, a current account deficit blowout looms – then probably a credit rating cut to follow the 2011 reduction, in maybe 3 – 4 years time. Also, in the Housing section we note migration flows are now officially positive and therefore adding to pressures – even after the 27% rise in Auckland house prices since 2009.

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