The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.
Off To Singapore – Thoughts on Housing
Thursday March 7th 2013
For the next week I’ll be in Singapore but will be running the usual monthly BNZ Confidence Survey and BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey. The latter will include questions on offshore presence in the housing market and will give data rather than merely anecdotes to assist the debate on the extent to which foreign buyers are affecting the Auckland market in particular.
New Zealand’s domestic economy is picking up, lead by construction. But export receipts are falling and with the NZD set to stay high and go higher, a current account deficit blowout looms – then probably a credit rating cut to follow the 2011 reduction, in maybe 3 – 4 years time. Also, in the Housing section we note migration flows are now officially positive and therefore adding to pressures – even after the 27% rise in Auckland house prices since 2009.
In this week’s Overview I look at how soon we will have good information on the relative importance of offshore buyers, first home buyers, and investors in the NZ housing market. Last week’s retail numbers were strong and that is one source of strength in the NZ dollar though some comments from the RBNZ Governor have for now capped the NZD. But before year’s end we see the NZD exceeding US 90 cents, 55 pence, and maybe 85 Aussie cents.
This week we look at recent data and where the economy is likely to go and why. In the housing section we also look at the latest data and analyse a personal decision regarding whether or not to buy a holiday home (not).
Visiting Singapore in March – & Some Holiday Comments
Thursday January 31st 2013
I have screeds of leave to use up which was accrued during the global financial crisis. That means that I’ll not be doing as many talks around the country for the next 3 – 4 years as in the past as I will be hopping overseas more. In that vein I shall be in Singapore and available to chat to anyone interested in catching up with what is happening back in New Zealand between March 11 and 15. So if you’d like to catch-up or even gather some folk together for a talk email me. email@example.com
In this week’s lead article I take a look at how the world is looking like a less dangerous place at the moment. But because money printing is playing a role in the rise in sentiment it would be wrong to conclude that there is a normal cyclical upturn underway. In fact as this year progresses talk will increasingly turn to how to withdraw the huge monetary injections undertaken by central banks. But for now a positive ball is rolling in some parts of the world – which brings one to New Zealand’s rolling investment ball – housing.
This week we round off last week’s discussion about expats with some comments received during the week plus an invitation. If you are an expat reading this and interested in offering your services while offshore to an NZ business wanting to effectively utilise the knowledge and connections you have then email me and we’ll talk. firstname.lastname@example.org Equally if you are an NZ business looking to access an expat to see how they can assist you then also email me.
This week we take a look at one of the special factors which contributes to less than optimal growth in New Zealand’s economy – the unwillingness on the part of many employers to hire skilled and highly motivated expats. This past month has seen an intriguing LinkedIn discussion of the disappointment many expats have felt at employer attitudes back in NZ. I discuss the issue in this week’s Overview and have prepared a paper available here. http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Expathiring.pdf
Over the past week there has been a marginal lessening of worries about Greece and the US fiscal deficit situation. So investors have bought risky assets and the Kiwi dollar is back above US 82 cents. In the FX section we look at why the NZD is high and is likely to stay that way.