Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview, Nov. 28

Thursday November 28th 2013

Household incomes are rising in NZ and this in conjunction with rising employment, high sentiment, rising house prices and rising house construction bodes well for retailing next year.


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Weekly Overview, Nov. 21

Thursday November 21st 2013

Many key indicators of the NZ economy are turning firmly upward. But we have seen all of them do this before since 2009 yet upturns have faltered. We examine why this time things are different and growth is likely to be sustained for three or so years. Page 1-3


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Weekly Overview Nov. 14

Thursday November 14th 2013

Our BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey shows a net 78% of real estate agents are seeing fewer first home buyers. Yet a net 6% continue to see more investors. No wonder then that a net 23% still feel that house prices are rising. Page 1


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Weekly Overview Nov. 7

Thursday November 7th 2013

Job numbers surged 1.2% last quarter giving 2.4% growth from a year ago. Employers should pay attention to the way labour availability will soon dry up bringing staffing issues and requiring a wages response. Page 1


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October 31 issue

Thursday October 31st 2013

Ten years ago non-primary manufactured goods made up 37% of our goods exports. That proportion is now just 24%. Our export and therefore economic dependence upon the primary sector is soaring. This is very unlikely to change given the strong demand offshore for our primary products, global challenges which face all manufacturers no matter where they are, and the high probability of a continued high NZD which we show is correlated with manufacturing export weakness. Page 1 – 2


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October 24 issue

Thursday October 24th 2013

One issue for older people growing their pre-retirement wealth is securing new employment above the age of 50. We offer some thoughts. Page 1.


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Weekly Overview Oct. 17

Thursday October 17th 2013

Key takeouts this week focus mainly on housing and savings.

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Economy Improving Slowly But Big Offshore Risks

Thursday October 10th 2013

This week we received two more sets of data telling us fairly much the same as most other pieces have been telling us for the past year or two. Growth in our economy looks like being good going forward, but there is still some hesitancy out there which will give canny employers a bit more time to source staff who soon will be in short supply.


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October 3 Weekly Overview

Thursday October 3rd 2013

Fresh calls from the Financial Services Council for Kiwis to boost their retirement savings – the same message of two decades ago, so is anything new?

Analysts are worried about housing bubbles in the UK and Australia, and ironically at a time when credit restrictions have been imposed here, in the UK the government is actively promoting lending up to 95% of valuation while in Australia investors are scrambling to buy seemingly whatever they can – increasingly off the plan.


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Weekly Overview Sept. 26

Thursday September 26th 2013

The Americas Cup races have come and gone – well gone unfortunately – hopes of a boost to our economy from hosting the next competition have evaporated, and we’re left with the reality of a September quarter output loss due to the high number of people shirking morning work for the past couple of weeks.


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