Many key indicators of the NZ economy are turning firmly upward. But we have seen all of them do this before since 2009 yet upturns have faltered. We examine why this time things are different and growth is likely to be sustained for three or so years. Page 1-3
Our BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey shows a net 78% of real estate agents are seeing fewer first home buyers. Yet a net 6% continue to see more investors. No wonder then that a net 23% still feel that house prices are rising. Page 1
Job numbers surged 1.2% last quarter giving 2.4% growth from a year ago. Employers should pay attention to the way labour availability will soon dry up bringing staffing issues and requiring a wages response. Page 1
Ten years ago non-primary manufactured goods made up 37% of our goods exports. That proportion is now just 24%. Our export and therefore economic dependence upon the primary sector is soaring. This is very unlikely to change given the strong demand offshore for our primary products, global challenges which face all manufacturers no matter where they are, and the high probability of a continued high NZD which we show is correlated with manufacturing export weakness. Page 1 – 2
This week we received two more sets of data telling us fairly much the same as most other pieces have been telling us for the past year or two. Growth in our economy looks like being good going forward, but there is still some hesitancy out there which will give canny employers a bit more time to source staff who soon will be in short supply.
Fresh calls from the Financial Services Council for Kiwis to boost their retirement savings – the same message of two decades ago, so is anything new?
Analysts are worried about housing bubbles in the UK and Australia, and ironically at a time when credit restrictions have been imposed here, in the UK the government is actively promoting lending up to 95% of valuation while in Australia investors are scrambling to buy seemingly whatever they can – increasingly off the plan.
The Americas Cup races have come and gone – well gone unfortunately – hopes of a boost to our economy from hosting the next competition have evaporated, and we’re left with the reality of a September quarter output loss due to the high number of people shirking morning work for the past couple of weeks.