Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

First Weekly Overview for 2014

Thursday January 23rd 2014

This year is going to be all about interest rates rising in New Zealand as growth surges perhaps toward 4%, the unemployment rate plummets as companies scramble for already scarce employees, whilst offshore massive uncertainty about monetary policies continues. The election late this year will generate a lot of analysis but the actual impact on the economy and financial asset prices will be minimal if measurable at all.

(more…)

Download document pdf 175kb

Weekly Overview Dec. 12

Thursday December 12th 2013

Last one for the year. Merry Christmas

Weekly Overview Dec. 5

Thursday December 5th 2013

Wholesale interest rates are creeping up, the NZD is well supported by high export prices, and we write lots about the housing market.

Download document pdf 348kb

Weekly Overview, Nov. 28

Thursday November 28th 2013

Household incomes are rising in NZ and this in conjunction with rising employment, high sentiment, rising house prices and rising house construction bodes well for retailing next year.

(more…)

Download document pdf 270kb

Weekly Overview, Nov. 21

Thursday November 21st 2013

Many key indicators of the NZ economy are turning firmly upward. But we have seen all of them do this before since 2009 yet upturns have faltered. We examine why this time things are different and growth is likely to be sustained for three or so years. Page 1-3

(more…)

Download document pdf 220kb

Weekly Overview Nov. 14

Thursday November 14th 2013

Our BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey shows a net 78% of real estate agents are seeing fewer first home buyers. Yet a net 6% continue to see more investors. No wonder then that a net 23% still feel that house prices are rising. Page 1

(more…)

Download document pdf 289kb

Weekly Overview Nov. 7

Thursday November 7th 2013

Job numbers surged 1.2% last quarter giving 2.4% growth from a year ago. Employers should pay attention to the way labour availability will soon dry up bringing staffing issues and requiring a wages response. Page 1

(more…)

Download document pdf 265kb

October 31 issue

Thursday October 31st 2013

Ten years ago non-primary manufactured goods made up 37% of our goods exports. That proportion is now just 24%. Our export and therefore economic dependence upon the primary sector is soaring. This is very unlikely to change given the strong demand offshore for our primary products, global challenges which face all manufacturers no matter where they are, and the high probability of a continued high NZD which we show is correlated with manufacturing export weakness. Page 1 – 2

(more…)

Download document pdf 243kb

October 24 issue

Thursday October 24th 2013

One issue for older people growing their pre-retirement wealth is securing new employment above the age of 50. We offer some thoughts. Page 1.

(more…)

Download document pdf 241kb

Weekly Overview Oct. 17

Thursday October 17th 2013

Key takeouts this week focus mainly on housing and savings.

Download document pdf 188kb

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26