The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.
Weekly Overview. November 19 2015
Thursday November 19th 2015
This week I had the pleasure of spending a couple of days in Christchurch and start the Weekly Overview discussing how construction of low rise office buildings has soared since I last had a decent walk around a year ago. In two more years the CBD will look amazingly different from the building site it is currently.
This week’s Overview is just three pages long so its not going to set the world alight. I concentrate on the important issue of making sure you don’t rush to form conclusions about things based upon just one month’s observations. You need at least three months worth of data to say anything really meaningful. If you look at just October you may conclude that house prices are falling in Auckland. But if you smooth over three months what we have instead is a trend of slowing house price rises from the pace of earlier this year.
In this week’s Overview I make a quick note of the weaker than expected employment numbers released yesterday along the lines of them reflecting the collapse in business sentiment early this year. Now that sentiment is back up again employment growth will resume.
We’re into a new financial year for the BNZ and being back in NZ after a couple of weeks offshore I am restarting the Weekly Overview after putting it into abeyance in January. On average each issue will be shorter than in the past but I’ll write a bigger summary and make it abundantly clear whether I think there is something truly worth reading or its just filler.
This is the first and last Weekly Overview for 2015 as I will be shifting toward a new monthly publication targeted at the strategic planning needs of Kiwi SMEs. The first issue of the NZ Observer will appear in the third week of February.