Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview 19 April 2018

Thursday April 19th 2018

This week I take a simple look at reasons why our economy’s growth rate and jobs growth have both been so strong the past four years, in spite of the big fall in dairy prices over 2013-14.

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Weekly Overview 12 April 2018

Thursday April 12th 2018

In our first issue of the renewed Weekly Overview we take a look at the tight labour market and the need for businesses to boost investment, the chances of another small easing in the LVR rules, and why any decent hike in interest rates remains some way off.

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Weekly Overview 7 December 2017

Thursday December 7th 2017

This is the last Weekly Overview for 2017 and it contains a quick review of some of the recent data and a warning to keep an eye on the drought spreading around the country. Merry Christmas.

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Weekly Overview 30 November 2017

Thursday November 30th 2017

LVR rules have been eased slightly. But it is extremely unlikely that a new housing surge will occur – and if the Reserve Bank thought that such a surge would occur they would not have made the small changes.

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Weekly Overview 23 November 2017

Thursday November 23rd 2017

This week we take a look at the dual long-term challenges facing farming – protein alternatives and environmentalism.

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Weekly Overview 16 November 2017

Thursday November 16th 2017

I’ve been on the road this week with not too much time for research or writing. So this week’s Overview merely traverses a few of the points discussed at functions around the country then notes that even if the Reserve Bank soon eases LVRs, this won’t spark a new upward leg in the house price cycle.

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Weekly Overview 9 November 2017

Thursday November 9th 2017

This week we make a quick note of the Reserve Bank doing nothing this morning, then deliver a reminder about what the housing market will look like for the next five or so years. Nothing startling frankly but perhaps of use to first home buyers.

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Weekly Overview 2 November 2017

Thursday November 2nd 2017

There’s a lot to write about this week so the Overview runs to seven pages. We look at the feasibility of planting 100 million trees a year, impact of perhaps 20-30,000 fewer immigrants, plus the likelihood of 10,000 affordable houses being built.


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Weekly Overview 26 October 2017

Thursday October 26th 2017

Thank goodness there is finally something new to write about. Currency dealers are even enjoying some busier activity as policy uncertainty has generated some larger than normal NZD fluctuations. In this week’s Overview we look at the agreements signed by Labour with NZ First and the Greens, focussing solely on aspects with macroeconomic significance. Almost all actual details of policy implementation however remain unknown.

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Weekly Overview 19 October 2017

Thursday October 19th 2017

NZ is to have a Labour-NZ First coalition government with support on confidence and supply from the Greens. General policy orientation will shift slightly toward a bit more state intervention and environmental concerns with some changes to RBNZ operations unlikely to actually alter implementation of either monetary or prudential policies. We will have to wait a few days until a document is released outlining policies agreed on then watch the next three years as support from the Greens is sought for every piece of legislation the new government wishes to pass.


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