Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview 21 September 2017

Thursday September 21st 2017

This week we note the economy’s 0.8% growth during the June quarter, consider the impact in financial markets of Saturday’s outcome, and reiterate again to first home buyers the way some things have turned in their favour recently.

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Weekly Overview 14 September 2017

Thursday September 14th 2017

This week I’ve been on the road giving talks so the Overview is embarrassingly short at not even one page of text and it is only really relevant to residential real estate agents wondering what their sales revenue might look like in a year’s time.

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Weekly Overview 7 September 2017

Thursday September 7th 2017

Opinion polls show near equal party vote support for National and Labour. As Labour offer change from the National government economic management of the past nine years we analyse their policies this week in the areas of monetary, fiscal, housing, workplace, and immigration.

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Weekly Overview 31 August 2017

Thursday August 31st 2017

This week we consider what happened in the economy when Labour were elected to power in 1999 after an extended period of a National government. We then consider nuclear war, LVRs, and question the four decade-long common way of talking about the NZ dollar in terms of it trending inexorably down long-term and needing to fall. Enjoy!

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Weekly Overview 24 August 2017

Thursday August 24th 2017

I am offshore speaking at a conference this week and time has not permitted anything more than a simple one page look at this week’s migration number. So you may as well skip this week’s Overview.

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Weekly Overview 17 August 2017

Thursday August 17th 2017

This week we look at real estate data and comment on the chances that the Reserve Bank will soon ease LVR restrictions. They are not high. The rules were announced on August 2013. Comparing now with then, although house price inflation has slowed nationwide from 6.3% to 5%, (Auckland 11% to 2%) lending growth is higher at 7.7% from 5.2%, and imbalances clearly persist between demand and supply growth in Auckland.

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Weekly Overview 10 August 2017

Thursday August 10th 2017

We start this week’s Overview doing what everyone else is doing today which is commenting on the Reserve Bank’s decision to do nothing. But then we take a look at the way in which so many things globally and within New Zealand have turned out the complete opposite of either what was expected or what was assumed. These include Peak Oil changing to Peak Demand, the terms of trade trending up and not down, extraordinarily low interest rates being bad for young buyers rather than good (we were better off buying our first houses when rates were at 18.5%) and so on. Enjoy this departure from the usual stuff.

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Weekly Overview 3 August 2017

Thursday August 3rd 2017

This week we take a look at yesterday’s labour market data noting that although the Kiwi dollar fell after the rnumbers on reduced expectations of monetary policy tightening, fundamentally the data show a strong jobs market. We also look at house building, business confidence, and real estate activity in Auckland before noting a recent Treasury paper on superannuation and discussing yet again the way firm economic and jobs growth do not much drive higher inflation and interest rates these days.

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Weekly Overview 27 July 2017

Thursday July 27th 2017

This week’s Overview is a short one at just three pages. We take a look at how few businesses say they lack customers, but risks of problems nonetheless are growing for a variety of reasons. We also note the rise in the Kiwi dollar back above US 75 cents. Two and a half months ago the rate was 68 cents.

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Weekly Overview 20 July 2017

Thursday July 20th 2017

This week we take a look at low inflation and the fairly obvious interest rate implications, the relatively unsurprising scaling back of earlier optimistic expectations that the greenback will soar and we will decline rapidly against it, and some thoughts on retirement saving.

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