Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

The full pdf version of the Weekly Overview is contained here.

Weekly Overview 19 October 2017

Thursday October 19th 2017

NZ is to have a Labour-NZ First coalition government with support on confidence and supply from the Greens. General policy orientation will shift slightly toward a bit more state intervention and environmental concerns with some changes to RBNZ operations unlikely to actually alter implementation of either monetary or prudential policies. We will have to wait a few days until a document is released outlining policies agreed on then watch the next three years as support from the Greens is sought for every piece of legislation the new government wishes to pass.

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Weekly Overview October 5 2017

Thursday October 5th 2017

Nothing much to report this week as we await a new government – still.

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Weekly Overview 28 September 2017

Thursday September 28th 2017

Data have told us nothing much new this week and the Reserve Bank leaving the official cash rate unchanged was no surprise. So we take a look at NZ First policies.

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Weekly Overview 21 September 2017

Thursday September 21st 2017

This week we note the economy’s 0.8% growth during the June quarter, consider the impact in financial markets of Saturday’s outcome, and reiterate again to first home buyers the way some things have turned in their favour recently.

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Weekly Overview 14 September 2017

Thursday September 14th 2017

This week I’ve been on the road giving talks so the Overview is embarrassingly short at not even one page of text and it is only really relevant to residential real estate agents wondering what their sales revenue might look like in a year’s time.

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Weekly Overview 7 September 2017

Thursday September 7th 2017

Opinion polls show near equal party vote support for National and Labour. As Labour offer change from the National government economic management of the past nine years we analyse their policies this week in the areas of monetary, fiscal, housing, workplace, and immigration.

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Weekly Overview 31 August 2017

Thursday August 31st 2017

This week we consider what happened in the economy when Labour were elected to power in 1999 after an extended period of a National government. We then consider nuclear war, LVRs, and question the four decade-long common way of talking about the NZ dollar in terms of it trending inexorably down long-term and needing to fall. Enjoy!

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Weekly Overview 24 August 2017

Thursday August 24th 2017

I am offshore speaking at a conference this week and time has not permitted anything more than a simple one page look at this week’s migration number. So you may as well skip this week’s Overview.

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Weekly Overview 17 August 2017

Thursday August 17th 2017

This week we look at real estate data and comment on the chances that the Reserve Bank will soon ease LVR restrictions. They are not high. The rules were announced on August 2013. Comparing now with then, although house price inflation has slowed nationwide from 6.3% to 5%, (Auckland 11% to 2%) lending growth is higher at 7.7% from 5.2%, and imbalances clearly persist between demand and supply growth in Auckland.

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Weekly Overview 10 August 2017

Thursday August 10th 2017

We start this week’s Overview doing what everyone else is doing today which is commenting on the Reserve Bank’s decision to do nothing. But then we take a look at the way in which so many things globally and within New Zealand have turned out the complete opposite of either what was expected or what was assumed. These include Peak Oil changing to Peak Demand, the terms of trade trending up and not down, extraordinarily low interest rates being bad for young buyers rather than good (we were better off buying our first houses when rates were at 18.5%) and so on. Enjoy this departure from the usual stuff.

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