Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Is China’s Growth An Illusion?

Thursday September 6th 2012

This is the first example of a pdf document I am calling the “NZ-China Comment”. It will function as a simple document containing material which I shall paste a link to on my Facebook page at www.facebook.com/tonyalexandernz

This document looks at whether China’s growth is a castle in the air built only on an infrastructure surge. This particular topic i

China’s Rise and America’s Pivot

Monday August 27th 2012

I’m writing this week’s column from a hotel (a cheap one) in Sydney where I’ll be attending a conference on China and Australia’s relationship with that country. To put it mildly there is a world of difference between the relationship between Australia and China and our relationship with China.

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Manufacturing Outside China

Friday August 24th 2012

The media have started to run stories recently regarding the growing threat to China’s garment and component assembly industry from some amazing robot developments in the West. The trend is well worth watching because if it accelerates then growth in China’s economy which has been based upon growth in the export manufacturing sector could be cut off at its knees. There would seem logically to be no impediment to vast robotic manufacturing plants opening in the West given that no local jobs will be lost, and new ones will be created tending the robots, possibly making them in the West etc. Here are some links.

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Growing With China

Thursday August 23rd 2012

This month’s issue of Growing With China contains the following.

Role For China In Europe?

Can anyone reasonably expect China to bailout Europe? No, we explain why. Plus we note how although the value of NZ goods exports to China (incl. Hong Kong) has risen 134% since October 2008 and a 141% rise in primary exports explains the bulk of the gain, non-primary exports have grown 33% while such exports to the rest of the world have risen only 3%. Therefore more than just a commodities boom has taken China to accounting for 15% of our export goods receipts from 7% four years ago. Page 1.

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Download document pdf 209kb

Our Engagement With China

Tuesday August 21st 2012

Each month I publish a report called Growing With China which examines developments in the Chinese economy, China’s role in the world, and most importantly our economic relationship with China. If you want to go on the free emailing list to receive it just email me at tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz

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China Assessing Europe Slowdown Effects

Thursday June 21st 2012

Welcome to the June issue of Growing With China. As with the rest of the world China’s attention currently is very strongly on worrying developments in Europe, how they impact China’s economy, and potential responses should the situation degenerate further. Few expect a stimulus of similar magnitude to the 2009-10 effort involving a fiscal stimulus equal to near 16% of Chinese GDP and a lending boom over four times that nominal size. Instead recent easing of monetary policy is likely to be repeated, some back-tracking on property sector restraints is expected, and extra infrastructure development probable.

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Download document pdf 178kb

China Growth Slowing

Tuesday May 22nd 2012

Welcome to the May issue of Growing With China. This month we start with some brief comments on the role of the media in China then move onto a description of the services offered to NZ exporters by the NZ Export Credit Office. We then look at some of the challenges posed by the Chinese labour market, handling corruption, and the importance of links between government and business. Over three pages we examine the latest data on China’s economy and how they show growth still slowing with exports in particular at ongoing risk from the clearly deteriorating growth prospects in China’s biggest export market – Europe.

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Download document pdf 114kb

China Having A Soft Landing

Tuesday April 24th 2012

Welcome to the third issue of Growing With China, our monthly publication looking at the Chinese economy, the economic relationship between New Zealand and China, and how NZ businesses can go about developing exports into the fast growing Chinese market.

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Download document pdf 124kb

China Faces Two Races Against Time

Tuesday March 20th 2012

Welcome to the second issue of “Growing With China” – our publication which focuses on the economic relationship between New Zealand and a country which will likely be our most important export destination within 5 – 10 years.

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Download document pdf 140kb

Growing With China – February 2012

Tuesday February 21st 2012

Our new monthly publication will examine the economic relationship between New Zealand and China with a number of aims. Make NZ’s business sector aware of the growth in China, the growth in our relationship, and the opportunities presented as China returns to accounting for 25% of global GDP. Outline ways Kiwi firms may access China’s market. Describe the experiences of Kiwis who have already engaged with China.

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Download document pdf 104kb

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