Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Weekly Overview Nov. 14

Thursday November 14th 2013

Our BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey shows a net 78% of real estate agents are seeing fewer first home buyers. Yet a net 6% continue to see more investors. No wonder then that a net 23% still feel that house prices are rising. Page 1


I make some comments on the JNZBC conference and Japan’s economy. Pages 2 – 4

Retailing is looking better – maybe

The September quarter data showed retailing weakness after a June quarter surge. But electronic transaction data for October were strong. Given the strength appearing in the labour market retailers may have a reasonable Christmas trading period. Pages 4 – 5

NZD Eases slightly, but still range-trading really

The USD has gone up courtesy of good jobs data last Friday night while we suffered a bit as the AUD weakened following a poor business confidence number yesterday. Big upward and downward forces are acting on the NZD and volatility should be expected in coming months. Page 6

Foreign economies mixed

We look at the United States, the beleaguered Eurozone, UK (where things are getting better), Australia (where job and business sentiment gauges have weakened), plus China. Hopes were quite high in uninformed quarters regarding the outcome of a special CCP meeting over the weekend. But little solid came from it. Thankfully the data remain good and Chinese visitors (including Hong Kong) spent over $800mn here in the year to September.  Pages 7 – 11