Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Weekly Overview July 28 2016

Thursday July 28th 2016

In this week’s Overview we discuss the reasons why first home buyers will remain worse off than those of us who bought our first properties in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s – for decades.

We also discuss the Independent Hearings Panel report on Auckland’s Unitary Plan and note the following. Post-earthquake Canterbury dwelling consent issuance rose to average 1.5 times the 23 year average for four years. To build 422,000 dwellings in the next 25 years Auckland needs consent issuance to average 2.5 times the 23 year average. The chances of this happening in the absence of unrestricted migration of builders to New Zealand are extremely low. Hence house prices rise further, especially as it looks like the Reserve Bank will cut the official cash rate another couple of times this year and more people preparing for retirement will be looking for yield outside bonds and term deposits.