Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Weekly Overview 17 August 2017

Thursday August 17th 2017

This week we look at real estate data and comment on the chances that the Reserve Bank will soon ease LVR restrictions. They are not high. The rules were announced on August 2013. Comparing now with then, although house price inflation has slowed nationwide from 6.3% to 5%, (Auckland 11% to 2%) lending growth is higher at 7.7% from 5.2%, and imbalances clearly persist between demand and supply growth in Auckland.

The next 12 months will bring pain for late-cycle investors hit by the 40% minimum deposit requirement for new investors, tighter bank lending rules, and an over-supply now of developable land in Auckland. Many will be looking to offload an asset they now see falling in price. This then becomes the best market facing first home buyers for many years and on Page 2 we devote a special section to this group.