Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Structural worries offshore, low inflation at home.

Friday October 19th 2012

This past week I have been on the road giving talks to audiences in Dublin, Paris, London and tomorrow Hamburg so I’ve not had much time for placing content in this week’s Overview. I’ve not carved off separate sections into pdfs this week either. In the introductory section I give an opinion about many problems persisting overseas but it should be noted for that for the moment US data have been good and progress is being made on European debt issues – hence the strength in sharemarkets and in the NZ dollar in spite of the much lower than expected NZ inflation number.

My thoughts on that low inflation at 0.8% – seems like a good time to keep an especially strong eye out for banks which might discount fixed rates for three years and beyond. Funding costs have fallen but whether nice rates arise or not depends substantially upon the marketers. I doubt the RB will cut the 2.5% cash rate next week given the construction sector boom sitting just around the corner and investors flocking to property.