Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Is 2012 Like 1992?

Thursday June 28th 2012

This week we have not learnt anything truly startling regarding the state of the NZ economy, and offshore the markets are on hold ahead of tonight’s European leaders summit. So if you are pressed for time stop reading and get on with life. If you are in Europe, good luck. You’re going to need it. If you want more detail however then we can note that NZ export receipts have fallen by 7.3% seasonally adjusted over the past three months, while the NBNZ monthly business survey has replicated our own of three weeks ago showing a sharp decline in optimism about the economy.

In our lead article this week we draw a comparison between 2012 and 1992 in terms of retired or near retired people thinking about seeking out higher yielding investments than term deposits as they realise they have not saved enough to have the lifestyle they were hoping for and have been hit by a downward shift in likely interest rates for the next few years. This time lets do our friends and relatives a favour by more forcefully pointing out to them the trade-off between risk and reward and suggest they do not chase the dodgy property spruikers and new version of finance companies sure to pop up in the next few years with various versions of TV eye candy to attract them in.