Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

China Growth Slowing

Tuesday May 22nd 2012

Welcome to the May issue of Growing With China. This month we start with some brief comments on the role of the media in China then move onto a description of the services offered to NZ exporters by the NZ Export Credit Office. We then look at some of the challenges posed by the Chinese labour market, handling corruption, and the importance of links between government and business. Over three pages we examine the latest data on China’s economy and how they show growth still slowing with exports in particular at ongoing risk from the clearly deteriorating growth prospects in China’s biggest export market – Europe.

NZ export growth to China has slowed sharply in the coming year and whereas in the year to March 2011 dairy exports grew 84%, in this past year they have fallen 3%. Wood pulp export growth has fallen from 75% to zero. Wood (logs etc) growth has slipped from 39% also to zero. Seafood growth has fallen from 17.6% to 8.9%.

These declines remind us of the importance needing to be attached to building other than primary exports to China, with substantial opportunities not just in export education and tourism (which is growing strongly still), but participation in the important building of China’s domestic social infrastructure. This includes the education system, social security, and health.

We now have a community of 1,100 people receiving GWC each month so if you have some insight regarding your interaction with China which you feel NZ Inc. could usefully use please send me an email outlining your thoughts. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz

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