Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

Weekly overview

The BNZ Weekly Overview is sent out each Thursday night to over 28,000 subscribers. The publication covers the latest data on the NZ economy, the housing market, interest rates, and foreign exchange.

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BNZ Confidence Survey

The survey is sent out to each of the 28,000 subscribers to the BNZ Weekly Overview on the first Thursday of each month and results are published the following Monday. It is the most up to date gauge of changes in business sentiment in New Zealand and accurately picks changes which subsequently appear in other surveys released with lags of many weeks.

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What’s New

Weekly Overview July 24

Thursday July 24th 2014

I am back from leave now so here are my latest thoughts on the economy following a period of some weaker than expected numbers but a near universally expected hike in the official cash rate again this morning. Further rate rises will come but not for a very uncertain time between December this year and June next year.

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Weekly Overview June 26

Thursday June 26th 2014

This week we take a quick look at the monthly migration numbers showing booming net inflows. The housing implications are fairly obvious and although the boom will make the Reserve Bank more inclined to raise interest rates the ongoing strength of the NZ dollar is an opposing force. The RB will therefore probably pause after the expected July rate hike and not start up again until December.

In the Housing section we offer a new way of looking at why we look at Auckland, continue to move there, and therefore keep house prices there rising at a faster pace than the rest of the country.

The NZ dollar meanwhile has strengthened further this week and our expectation remains that it is going to stay high. After all, this week we saw the release of weaker than expected GDP data in the United States and manufacturing gauges in Europe. Yet in China the manufacturing number was good and that actually adds to NZD support given our high and rising exposure to the Chinese economy.

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Weekly Overview June 19

Thursday June 19th 2014

This week we take a run-through our eight key themes for the NZ economy and conclude that half are on track and the rest may turn out as we expect when we get data beyond the March quarter.

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Weekly Overview June 12

Thursday June 12th 2014

These past two days I have been yet again at National Farm Fieldays, so start off this week’s Overview with a few observations on the sentiment and concerns of the many people I have been chatting with. This morning the RBNZ raised the cash rate 0.25% to 3.25% as near universally expected. But they disappointed some erroneous optimists hoping that they would signal a pause in July when they retained the same projected interest rate track as released three months ago. The factoring in of higher interest rate expectations has pushed the NZD up by one cent today to sit two cents higher against the greenback than a week ago.

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Weekly Overview June 5

Thursday June 5th 2014

Data received during the week showing booming construction but easing debt growth and dairy receipts leaves the RB on track for another 0.35% increase in the cash rate next Thursday morning.

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