Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

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The BNZ Weekly Overview is sent out each Thursday night to over 28,000 subscribers. The publication covers the latest data on the NZ economy, the housing market, interest rates, and foreign exchange.

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What’s New

Sporadic 5 – April 23 2015

Thursday April 23rd 2015

A survey recently released shows that in spite of an improved economy and outlook more SME owners want to either sell their business or stop growing in order to better balance work and home life. This is a key reason why our economy fails to produce the many larger companies we need in order to boost exports and rise sustainably back up the OECD ladder. In this Sporadic issue we look at work we did back in early-2011 examining NZ business culture and how it works to impede business and economic growth.

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NZ Observer – April 2015

Tuesday April 21st 2015

Continuing on with last month’s analysis focussing on Auckland’s projected high population growth rate, we point out that this growth results substantially from Auckland having the lowest median population age of all regions at 34.8 years. Canterbury is 39.4.
Many people have recently been making the claim that the small business sector is the engine of employment growth in the NZ economy. The data however say otherwise. Between 2010 and 2013 employment in small firms grew by 2.6%, medium sized firms 5.6%, and large firms 4.8%.

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Sporadic 4 April 16 2015

Thursday April 16th 2015

Yesterday the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor expressed concern about high and rapidly rising house prices in Auckland and implied a call for a capital gains tax. Will his comments scare buyers away and calm the market, or encourage more buying? The latter. In this Sporadic issue I discuss why.

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Sporadic – Issue 3

Monday April 13th 2015

Here are some numbers reminding us all that China is important to our economy.

20% of our goods export receipts come from China+
28% of foreign students studying in NZ come from China+, bringing us about $800mn.
14% of foreign tourism spending comes from China+, bringing us over $1bn.
7%+ of non-student migrants to NZ come from China+

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Sporadic – Issue 2

Wednesday April 8th 2015

The Kiwi dollar may have backed away from parity with the AUD yesterday but that interesting crossover point is still likely to be breached within the next few weeks – or days. In this second Sporadic issue we take a quick look at factors driving not so much the NZD upward – as we have shed 13% against the greenback this past year – but the Aussie dollar downward. Those factors won’t reverse for quite some time so a highish NZD/AUD exchange rate will likely be around for a couple of years.

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