Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

What’s New

Weekly Overview 21 April 2016

Thursday April 21st 2016

I am on leave this week and next but forgot to warn of such last week so am sending the Overview out to say that – and to make a few quick comments on the state of the economy and as usual the housing market. There is nothing much new there so give it a miss if you have something better to do.

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Weekly Overview 14 April 2016

Thursday April 14th 2016

There is widespread awareness now of the way regional housing markets are rising strongly, and that Auckland has not finished its push higher. With the Reserve Bank expected to cut interest rates later this month and again in June there will clearly be more property demand coming soon from investors – maybe less so first home buyers for whom the problem is not really the interest rate but the property cost and getting a deposit together.

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Weekly Overview 7 April 2016

Thursday April 7th 2016

Although some people are optimistic that international dairy prices will rise soon, plenty of forecasters offshore predict still rising supply bringing price restraint, including the US Department of Agriculture which sees no improvement before 2019. Forecasts of rising demand over the long-term remain as robust as ever – but forecasts of supply changing are also as lacking as ever and if you don’t forecast both you can’t reasonably forecast prices.

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Weekly Overview March 31 2016

Thursday March 31st 2016

This week’s Overview is a relatively short and simple one. I take a look at how some people may be overestimating the impact on Auckland house prices of media reports that some people are shifting elsewhere. I also note the way in which increasing investment in some residential property markets appears to be leading to more unoccupied houses.

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Handout for March 22 Function

Wednesday March 23rd 2016

Here is the small handout produced for attendees at the Ellerslie Event Centre function on March 22.

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