Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

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The BNZ Weekly Overview is sent out each Thursday night to over 28,000 subscribers. The publication covers the latest data on the NZ economy, the housing market, interest rates, and foreign exchange.

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What’s New

Sporadic 12 July 2 2015

Thursday July 2nd 2015

In this issue of Sporadic I take a look at the many factors which are causing economic forecasts to be wrong and repeat earlier warnings that businesses need to explicitly allow for unpredictable operating environment changes. Plus from this issue on I’m adding back in the section “If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do?” in which I also explicitly allow for unpredictability of interest rates. Additionally, for over a month I’ve been noting the deterioration in NZ economic conditions and we can see the manifestation of this deterioration in the lower NZD and altered interest rates outlook. I’ll start having a quick run-through of recent developments – the rather important ones this week being the crystallisation of the Greek default risk, the further deterioration in China’s economic outlook prompting more interest rate cuts there, and of course the extra 5.9% fall in dairy prices back to 2009 levels. It never rains…. – which reminds one of the building risk of a repeat of the 1997/98 El Nino weather pattern.

Download document pdf 286kb

Sporadic 11 June 25 2015

Thursday June 25th 2015

In Sporadic 9 (“The Wind Shifts Direction”) issued on June 3, I looked at how prospects for growth in the NZ economy were deteriorating. Eight days later the Reserve Bank eased monetary policy as they also acknowledged that since the start of the year the negative developments have outweighed the positive ones. Is that still happening? That is, has the news we have received since June 3 been weighted toward the good side or yet again the bad side? Lets run through the items.

Download document pdf 251kb

NZ Observer – June 2015

Monday June 22nd 2015

In this month’s NZ Observer we make a suggestion for how course providers can get more SME owners showing up to improve their skills, discuss the Reserve Bank’s recent easing of monetary policy and note more is likely, examine the weakening NZD and also note more is coming. However our economy still retains good support from areas like construction, migration, and household spending so the extent of the NZD’s decline is likely to be limited. We also make some rough calculations aimed at indicating which regions of the country have a housing shortage – only a couple by the looks of it.

Download document pdf 540kb

Sporadic 10 June 11 2015

Thursday June 11th 2015

I am at Fieldays again in Hamilton and here are some of the interesting things which I have learnt so far from the farmers, along with what I am saying to them about their operating environment, and the dairy outlook in particular.

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Sporadic 9 June 3 2015

Wednesday June 3rd 2015

Since the start of this year there have been developments which will boost the pace of economic growth, and developments which will retard it. On balance the negative side dominates, hence the downward movement in the NZ dollar and interest rates, and the rising need for nimbleness and focus from most businesses.

Download document pdf 274kb