Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

What’s New

Sporadic 18 – September 2 2015

Wednesday September 2nd 2015

Things have slightly settled down in sharemarkets (slightly), so here are some thoughts on what is happening in China, plus some comments on dairying and a reminder of the housing boom spreading out of Auckland into the regions – except Christchurch.

Download document pdf 460kb

Confidence Survey Results – September 2015

Tuesday September 1st 2015

Other surveys show businesses in New Zealand to be very down in the mouth – which is perhaps not surprising considering the decline in our previous rock star sector – dairy – and the worries being expressed about our previous rock star export destination – China. But unlike countries where things which are exported are usually made from many smaller things which have been imported, the fall in our currency is providing a clear net boost to many export sectors. Tourism particularly is being turbocharged, but operators are also happy about the lower currency and noting improving sales in manufacturing, education, wine, Kiwifruit, advertising, business consultancy, retailing and packaging. Growth in our economy is slowing and interest rates will be cut again. But balancing factors are already in play so a recession scenario remains of very low probability.

Download document pdf 483kb

Sporadic 17 August 17 2015

Monday August 17th 2015

We have reached the point in the housing cycle when investors and frustrated first home buyers look outside of Auckland for more bite-sized houses rather than the too big to chew Auckland ones. The movement this cycle will be accentuated by the removal of expectations that interest rates will be rising anytime soon, and the fact that rates are at their lowest levels since the 1960s. Slightly rising unemployment won’t crimp this regional shift much, especially as the dairy boom never produced much jobs growth off the farm anyway. So how do you assess where to look/ there are many factors to consider and in this issue of Sporadic I throw into the mix just one factor – current prices relative to long-term trends against the country as a whole. You can look at the graphs and form your own opinion as to which parts of the country seem most overdue for a period of catch-up.

Download document pdf 552kb

Employer Advice to Migrants

Friday August 14th 2015

This is a 2013 paper I wrote based on a survey asking businesses about their experiences with migrants and the advice they would give them.

Perceived Locus of Control

Friday August 14th 2015

This is a paper I wrote in 2013 looking at what businesses in New Zealand consider as major determinants of their success.