Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

What’s New

BNZ Confidence Survey Results – October 2015

Monday October 5th 2015

Our latest BNZ Confidence Survey has found that in most sectors respondents are seeing things as either steady or improving. Construction and engineering are strong, manufacturing doing well, farming is weak but dairy farmers are pulling back from the brink. The Auckland residential real estate market is cooling, but elsewhere things look firm.

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Sporadic 20 September 23 2015

Wednesday September 23rd 2015

Summarised Outlook and Situation Report

Growth in the NZ economy has slowed recently and business and consumer confidence levels have fallen. Risks internationally have shifted further to the downside – most notably with regard to China – and with the Federal Reserve backing away substantially from signalling they will raise rates shortly we need to consider how we could be living through the 1950s – 1060s again with sustained low interest rates. This outlook means ongoing support for housing markets around New Zealand though currently measures to slow Auckland’s pace of price rises are working and investors are flocking to the more affordable regions for a period of catch-up repricing.

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Sporadic 19 September 10 2015

Thursday September 10th 2015

RBNZ Almost Back To Square One

The Reserve Bank met expectations this morning by cutting the official cash rate another 0.25%. Come the end of October they will probably have unwound all of last year’s tightening – thus reversing rate rises for the second time post-GFC. Other central banks like the RBA, ECB, and Riksbank have also reversed rate rises as the post-GFC world is producing far lower inflation than traditional economic models have suggested. those models unfortunately no longer work and as we have warned for over five years now you need to be very careful about paying too much attention to forecasts of interest rates – and perhaps most other economic variables. Build flexibility and resilience into your business operations.

In this Sporadic issue number 19 I take a look at a long list of reasons why forecasting accuracy has gone out the window.

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Sporadic 18 – September 2 2015

Wednesday September 2nd 2015

Some Perspective On China

Things have slightly settled down in sharemarkets (slightly), so here are some thoughts on what is happening in China, plus some comments on dairying and a reminder of the housing boom spreading out of Auckland into the regions – except Christchurch.

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Confidence Survey Results – September 2015

Tuesday September 1st 2015

Other surveys show businesses in New Zealand to be very down in the mouth – which is perhaps not surprising considering the decline in our previous rock star sector – dairy – and the worries being expressed about our previous rock star export destination – China. But unlike countries where things which are exported are usually made from many smaller things which have been imported, the fall in our currency is providing a clear net boost to many export sectors. Tourism particularly is being turbocharged, but operators are also happy about the lower currency and noting improving sales in manufacturing, education, wine, Kiwifruit, advertising, business consultancy, retailing and packaging. Growth in our economy is slowing and interest rates will be cut again. But balancing factors are already in play so a recession scenario remains of very low probability.

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