Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

What’s New

Weekly Overview 30 June 2016

Thursday June 30th 2016

Like everyone else this week we take a look at the Brexit vote and offer some thoughts as an outsider looking in as a disgruntled bunch of Remain losers debate ditching democracy, taking votes away from old people, and portray Leave voters as racist Neanderthals.

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Weekly Overview June 23 2016

Thursday June 23rd 2016

As we all bide time waiting for the Brexit referendum result, this week we take a quick run-through of NZ economic data reinforcing our view that current NZ growth is good and reasonable prospects lie ahead.

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Weekly Overview June 16 2016

Thursday June 16th 2016

This week I am at Fieldays so start the Overview with a few observations on the mood at Australasia’s biggest agricultural gathering. I also take a look again at the housing market, focussing in on two things. Firstly a list of structural changes helping to explain the apparent downward trend in home ownership. Second the data suggesting near 40% of house sales in our three biggest cities are to investors.

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Weekly Overview 9 June 2016

Thursday June 9th 2016

As was expected the Reserve Bank left its cash rate unchanged at 2.25% this morning and retained a warning that a further reduction may be needed. They in fact have one pencilled in which we think will arrive in August, and forecast no rate rise until beyond the end of their forecast horison which is the middle of 2019. This ongoing good environment for borrowers can do nothing other than provide continued support to a housing market replete with more and more people seeking accommodation but restricted by some existing shortages and less than optimal construction growth.

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Weekly Overview June 2 2016

Thursday June 2nd 2016

This week the data releases have been on the positive side, so it is easy to understand why the Kiwi dollar remains firm. In the housing market data show strong price rises and listings shortages. We take a look at the many factors driving house prices higher and the results of our special question in last week’s BNZ Confidence Survey regarding whether people are Happy or Unhappy that house prices are rising. The outcome helps explain why stops will not be pulled out to cause price declines.

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