Tony Alexander

Economic Commentaries

Tony Alexander

Welcome to the online library we have created for placing reports and specialised commentaries too large or detailed to go into our flagship publication the BNZ Weekly Overview.

Weekly overview

The BNZ Weekly Overview is sent out each Thursday night to over 28,000 subscribers. The publication covers the latest data on the NZ economy, the housing market, interest rates, and foreign exchange.

View this week's overview

Sign up for weekly updates

BNZ Confidence Survey

View this month's survey results

What’s New

NZ Observer – March 2015

Wednesday March 18th 2015

New Zealand’s economy has performed well compared with many others the past three or four years. But two to three years from now the Christchurch rebuild will be waning, a period of hefty fixed asset investment in the dairy sector will also be ebbing, the migration boom will have turned, and the temporary stimuli from structural adjustments downward in fuel prices and interest rate expectations will have gone. What will drive ur growth then? It won’t be manufacturing which remains on a long-term shrinking path. It won’t be the primary sector unless there is a surprising cut in dairy production overseas (the opposite will instead happen), or farmers switch toward producing a different output.

New Zealand will need to more fully embrace what is becoming the key source of growth for businesses – strong and vibrant innovation processes built around recruitment and retention of “talent”, and strong connectivity with centres of excellence and end product use overseas. This will require more investment in the infrastructure of New Zealand’s prime “agglomeration” of Auckland, high openness to foreign capital and migrant flows, and stronger linkages between the education and business sectors.

In this month’s NZ Observer we run through data which SMEs may find useful as they contemplate where economic growth in New Zealand is likely to come from over the next three decades.

NZ Observer, February 2015

Tuesday February 17th 2015

Welcome to the first issue of the NZ Observer. This new publication is aimed squarely at SMEs contemplating their likely operating environment over the short, medium and long terms. On page 2 we outline the likely environment for the next couple of years noting strong growth support from activity in Christchurch and Auckland plus investment in dairying to a perhaps easing extent. On page 5 we take a special look at retailing noting the correlation between price changes and sales and the way that rising costs for non-retailing items have taken available cash away from the sector.


Download document pdf 623kb

Weekly Overview January 22 2015

Thursday January 22nd 2015

This is the first and last Weekly Overview for 2015 as I will be shifting toward a new monthly publication targeted at the strategic planning needs of Kiwi SMEs. The first issue of the NZ Observer will appear in the third week of February.

Download document pdf 228kb

Weekly Overview December 11

Thursday December 11th 2014

Download document pdf 270kb

Weekly Overview December 4 2014

Thursday December 4th 2014

Download document pdf 325kb